Egypt Headed for an Explosion

by
Eric Margolis

Recently
by Eric Margolis: Afghanistan
– We Forgot History and We Repeated It

The second,
decisive round of Egypt’s presidential election will be held 16
and 17 June. If former general and Mubarak regime stalwart Ahmad
Shafiq somehow wins, it’s almost certain the vote was manipulated.

A huge popular
explosion in Egypt will very likely ensue. Egyptians are already
furious their first democratic election of a president was distorted
by the state election commission, a tool of the military junta now
ruling Egypt. The commission vetoed many popular and capable candidates
from the election for spurious reasons, so corrupting the election
in advance. The vote was set up to split the votes of Islamists
between numerous candidates.

In the end,
two candidates, the Muslim Brotherhood’s Mohamed Morsi and former
Maj. General Ahmad Shafiq, were left facing one another in the runoff
vote.

I observed
Egypt’s parliamentary vote that began at the end of 2011 and ended
in early 2012. This vote was fair, open and laudably democratic.
Its outcome was only a surprise to the western media which routinely
misunderstands or misreports the Mideast. The Islamists – the Brotherhood
and orthodox Salafist al-Nur Party – won a landslide with 66% of
the popular vote.

In other words,
two of three Egyptians voted for parties advocating government under
Islamic principles. Horrified, Egypt’s military, backed and financed
by western powers and some conservative Arab allies, set about trying
to split the Islamists, reinvigorating the Mubarak regime, and making
sure the presidential election would be an uphill struggle for the
Islamists.

The first round
of the presidential election was clearly tainted by vote rigging,
a specialty of the old Mubarak regime. The military’s candidate,
Shafiq, won easily in districts that had given landslide victories
to the Islamists.

The Islamists
were to blame for some of this. They failed to unite, splitting
the vote. They failed to convince deeply worried Coptic Christians,
who comprise 10% of Egypt’s population, that Islamists would not
be a threat to Christianity or enforce draconian Salafist practices.
They did not sufficiently emphasize their commitment to democracy
or youth issues.

Another key
factor that I witnessed across Egypt was the military junta’s ploy
of withdrawing police from the streets and actually encouraging
a crime wave to develop in a nation that was one of the world’s
most crime-free societies in spite of its grinding poverty. Many
Egyptians were frightened by the rising crime wave into supporting
Shafiq and his military backers who vowed to crush crime with an
iron first.

Even so, it
strains comprehension that Shafiq is now running neck-a-neck with
Islamist Morsi. There is even talk that if Shafiq wins, he will
name the hated former intelligence chief Omar Suleiman as prime
minister. A Shafiq victory would mean a return to absolute Mubarakism,
without Mubarak.

Egypt did not
stage its revolution so that Mubarakist autocracy and the fierce
police state that kept it in power could return. So that the circles
of corrupt businessmen and cronies around Mubarak could resume their
plundering of the economy. Or so that Egypt could remain under the
thumb of the United States and, indirectly, Israel. But that’s what
could happen.

In fact, a
big question is how Egypt’s Islamist-nationalists could get by without
some $2 billion in US annual military and economic aid.

Morsi should
vow to appoint popular Nasserist Hamdin Sabahi as his prime minister
and name Copts to senior positions. He will have to quickly seek
economic aid from the EU – at a time when it is awash with troubles.

Washington
is deeply alarmed the Brotherhood may abrogate the hated, one-sided
1979 Camp David treaty with Israel. Most Egyptians rightly see the
treaty as void because Israel violated one of its most important
provisions: that Israel would withdraw from the West Bank and permit
creation of a Palestinian state. But in a US election year in which
pro-Israel forces dominate the Republican Party, Egypt’s nationalists
and Islamist are well advised caution.

It’s
no coincidence young Egyptians dismiss the Brotherhood, “your
grandfather’s party.” Its conservative members, many engineers
and academics, have little experience in the dirty game of politics
and often appears stuffy and slow.

But if Shafiq
and the military win the next vote, Egyptians could turn dangerously
radical as the revolution that began in Tahrir Square goes violent.

June
2, 2012

Eric
Margolis [send
him mail] is the author of War
at the Top of the World and the new book, American
Raj: Liberation or Domination?: Resolving the Conflict Between the
West and the Muslim World. See his
website.

Copyright
© 2012 Eric Margolis

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