by
Charles Goyette

Recently
by Charles Goyette: The
State of the Union: Just Another Reality Show

With wins in
Michigan and Arizona, Willard Mitt Romney, the establishment candidate,
appears to be back in the driver’s seat in the race to the Republican
presidential nomination. Meanwhile, Ron Paul continues to add to
his delegate count.

Establishment
Republicans are a breed unto themselves. If you go to their long-term
planning meetings, if you listen to them talk about their Party’s
future, it’s like listening to well-known lyrics of familiar tunes.
It’s all about broadening the base, getting more young people involved,
becoming relevant, how to capture enthusiasm, more young people,
using the internet, reaching out to young people, figuring out how
to fundraise in the digital age, getting more young people.

Now, along
comes Ron Paul, who offers them exactly what they want: young people,
enthusiasm, an unbeatable social media campaign, devoted volunteers,
better demographics, new fundraising success, a campaign worthy
of the digital age, relevance, money, excitement, and (did I mention?)
young people.

It’s exactly
what they have wished for. Exactly what they need. And they turn
their back on it.

What do Republicans
actually do? They like to give their nomination to the candidate
who they think deserves it. Principles and ideals are off the table.
The Party’s future that they worry about is forgotten. Because all
they really want to do is give the nomination to the candidate whose
turn it is.

Look at Bush
the Elder. The Reagan Republicans never liked him. In fact, I knew
a delegate to the Republican convention that nominated Reagan in
1980 who typified that view. She even refused to vote for Bush to
be on the ticket. Even though he was Reagan’s pick. But after Reagan,
it was Bush’s “turn.” He got the nomination.

Bob Dole had
been Senate minority and majority leader for 10 years. He had been
Gerald Ford’s running mate in 1976. It didn’t matter that he had
no vision to stir the people like Ron Paul does. All Dole could
do was talk about process; dry, boring tales about the times he
invoked cloture. Thrilling. But in 1996, it was his turn. He got
the nomination.

John McCain
was said to be a war hero. After losing the nomination to Bush the
Younger in 2000 and despite standing for a lot of things that Republicans
said they opposed, after Bush’s eight-year romp, it was McCain’s
turn. He got the nomination.

Which brings
us back to Romney. Like George W. Bush, Romney’s father had been
a figure in Republican politics, remembered today only for the help
he gave the Party’s old guard Rockefeller establishment in trying
to stop Goldwater from getting the nomination in 1964. Mitt Romney
himself has been a governor, and, more importantly, ran a close
second to John McCain in 2008.

So it’s his
turn.

That’s the
other thing about the way the Republican’s choose their nominees.
They have to be establishment figures. That helps them decide whose
turn it is. So, true to form, the Arizona and Michigan primaries
went to Romney. He’s an establishment guy. And it’s his turn.

Still the Internet
is filled with pictures of Romney addressing people in a mostly
empty stadium, gymnasiums with nobody seated beyond the first couple
of rows, and campaign rallies that would even make the Maytag repairman
feel abandoned.

At the same
time, Ron Paul is packing them to the rafters, overflowing rallies
with hundreds turned away, cheering crowds of thousands, shoulder-to-shoulder,
elbow-to-elbow supporters, wild in their enthusiasm for Ron Paul
and his message of freedom, peace, and prosperity.

As he does
better and better with the people, out comes the establishment,
sharpening its long knives. Here’s the New York Times’ recent
judgment: “Ron Paul long ago disqualified himself for the presidency
by peddling claptrap proposals like abolishing the Federal Reserve,
returning to the gold standard, cutting a third of the federal budget
and all foreign aid and opposing the Civil Rights Act of 1964.”

We’ve been
down this road before.  The establishment likes its central
bank-Wall Street axis running the Republican Party.  It prefers
its candidates be big government, big spending blue bloods of the
Rockefeller wing of the party:  George Bush, the elder son
of Wall Street’s Prescott Bush and the man who made possible the
bumbling, big-spending W. Bush years that ended in financial panic;
John McCain, who sounded like a confused beauty pageant contestant
when Ron Paul asked
him a simple question about economic policy; and the flip-flopping,
easily molded Mitt Romney, who fits the mold of an establishment
Republican candidate. 

Still, Ron
Paul continues to get more delegates. My friend Michael Shedlock
of Mish’s Global Economic Analysis has done a good job crunching
the numbers and concludes that the odds of a brokered convention
– one in which Romney doesn’t have enough delegates to cinch the
nomination on the first ballot – is better than 50%. See his numbers
here.

It’s enough
to make next week’s Super Tuesday interesting. And by the time the
convention rolls around this summer, maybe the Republicans will
have figured out what a Rasmussen poll reported yesterday – that
Ron Paul beat Obama in a head-to-head matchup, and outperformed
all the other Republicans against the president.

Wow! All the
things the Republicans want: Youth, energy, enthusiasm, grassroots
support and fundraising. And did I mention young people?

All that and
a victory, too!

March
1, 2012

Copyright
© 2012 Charles Goyette

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