Iowa Outcome Ideal for Ron Paul
by Greg Buls
Infowars
The outcome
in Iowa has Ron Paul solidly established and in an ideal position
to move forward with confidence. If youÂ’re watching the race
at all, youÂ’ve noticed that the GOP establishment has brought
out the long knives, with Gingrich calling PaulÂ’s supporters
‘indecent’, and Santorum saying that Paul is ‘disgusting‘.
Virtually every ‘news’ story referencing Paul includes
a declaratory statement that Paul cannot be nominated, or ‘almost
certainlyÂ’ cannot. TV talking heads such as PoliticoÂ’s
Roger Simon were at least honest about the shared intent of the
media and the GOP establishment: ‘If Paul wins Iowa we’ll
just take it out (of the picture)Â’. IowaÂ’s own governor
downplayed the importance of his stateÂ’s caucus outcome, should
Paul win – something no other governor has done in American
history.
In spite of
the relentless assault against him, PaulÂ’s support held up
well, with a result mirroring most of the polls leading up to the
caucuses. His supporters can’t possibly be discouraged –
PaulÂ’s support grew steadily over the months, and he finished
near his peak. Santorum’s turn as ‘flavor of the week’,
coming right after voters got another look at Newt Gingrich, came
at the perfect time, further fracturing the establishment vote.
The Iowa results
boost PaulÂ’s chances for long-term success for a number of
reasons.
- A lot of
the negative attention that was aimed at Paul will now be focused
on Santorum. The media may give Arlen SpecterÂ’s most important
political
ally a break, for now, but his opponents wonÂ’t. To the
media, Santorum is a perfect GOP candidate – one they can
easily trash when the time comes. His current appeal is a mile
wide and a millimeter deep; thereÂ’s nothing of substance
driving it – no scheme like Cain’s ’9-9-9 plan’,
no great legislative achievements, nothing aside from the perception
that he’d be ‘tough on terror’, that he speaks
in earnest, and that heÂ’s not Gingrich or Romney. As long
as Santorum is in it, Romney and Gingrich will remain in, they
likely think that SantorumÂ’s chances to actually secure the
nomination are nil. - RomneyÂ’s
finish makes any ‘inevitability’ talk look ridiculous.
He seems to have a ceiling of 25%-30% of GOP primary voters, with
no noticeable crossover enthusiasm from democrats, and little
appeal to independents. The undecided voters will continue to
ping-pong between the other candidates, with some sticking to
Paul with each bounce. It seems that no matter what Romney says,
does, or spends, he canÂ’t gain any broader traction. He isnÂ’t
trusted by most republicans, for far better reasons than the GOP
establishment posits for opposing Paul. ThereÂ’s little prospect
that Romney can change that fact, but heÂ’s still going to
grind it out. - There isnÂ’t
much the GOP establishment can do to derail Paul going forward.
Ballot registration deadlines are passing, and the look of a real
race means the appearance of a new entry (from a bench that is
shallow and all-establishment) is less likely. The GOP has shown
an interest in gaming the convention, but they have already deeply
alienated many of PaulÂ’s supporters, who will easily constitute
the difference in the next election, whether Paul is on the ballot
or not. The more the GOP does that seems designed to deny him
a fair chance at the nomination, the more people they will alienate.
The damage may already be done; itÂ’s hard to find any Paul
supporters who show any enthusiasm for any other candidates. They
know that this actually isnÂ’t just like every other election,
a choice between two evils. Our country is in the grip of something
awful which transcends Obama, and weÂ’re approaching the event
horizon. For millions there is one way out and one captain, everything
else is a distraction from reality.
The cake may
already be baked for the GOP. TheyÂ’ve made support of something
akin to our current foreign policy the new litmus-test for respectability
in the GOP. The damage theyÂ’ve already done to their party,
with their wholesale abandonment of the partyÂ’s long-held Â’11th
Commandment’: “Thou shalt not speak ill of any republican”,
may be too much to undo. If they are not yet worried and introspective,
they should be.
- All of
the candidates except perhaps Bachmann and Perry will remain in
the race. They all realize that 15%-20% of GOP primary voters
are up for grabs in any given month, and Bachmann and PerryÂ’s
supporters would add 15% or so to that pool. Paul should hope
that the establishment vote remains divided for as long as possible,
as he steadily builds his support.
January
6, 2012
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© 2012 Infowars