by
David Rose
Daily Mail

The supposed
‘consensus’ on man-made global warming is facing an inconvenient
challenge after the release of new temperature data showing the
planet has not warmed for the past 15 years.

The figures
suggest that we could even be heading for a mini ice age to rival
the 70-year temperature drop that saw frost fairs held on the Thames
in the 17th Century.

Based on readings
from more than 30,000 measuring stations, the data was issued last
week without fanfare by the Met Office and the University of East
Anglia Climatic Research Unit. It confirms that the rising trend
in world temperatures ended in 1997.

A
painting, dated 1684, by Abraham Hondius depicts one of many frost
fairs on the River Thames during the mini ice age

Meanwhile,
leading climate scientists yesterday told The Mail on Sunday that,
after emitting unusually high levels of energy throughout the 20th
Century, the sun is now heading towards a ‘grand minimum’ in its
output, threatening cold summers, bitter winters and a shortening
of the season available for growing food.

Solar output
goes through 11-year cycles, with high numbers of sunspots seen
at their peak.

We are now
at what should be the peak of what scientists call ‘Cycle 24’ –
which is why last week’s solar storm resulted in sightings of the
aurora borealis further south than usual. But sunspot numbers are
running at less than half those seen during cycle peaks in the 20th
Century.

Analysis by
experts at NASA and the University of Arizona – derived from magnetic-field
measurements 120,000 miles beneath the sun’s surface – suggest that
Cycle 25, whose peak is due in 2022, will be a great deal weaker
still.

According to
a paper issued last week by the Met Office, there is a  92
per cent chance that both Cycle 25 and those taking place in the
following decades will be as weak as, or weaker than, the ‘Dalton
minimum’ of 1790 to 1830. In this period, named after the meteorologist
John Dalton, average temperatures in parts of Europe fell by 2C.

However, it
is also possible that the new solar energy slump could be as deep
as the ‘Maunder minimum’ (after astronomer Edward Maunder), between
1645 and 1715 in the coldest part of the ‘Little Ice Age’ when,
as well as the Thames frost fairs, the canals of Holland froze solid.

Yet, in its
paper, the Met Office claimed that the consequences now would be
negligible – because the impact of the sun on climate is far less
than man-made carbon dioxide. Although the sun’s output is likely
to decrease until 2100, ‘This would only cause a reduction in global
temperatures of 0.08C.’ Peter Stott, one of the authors, said: ‘Our
findings suggest  a reduction of solar activity to levels not
seen in hundreds of years would be insufficient to offset the dominant
influence of greenhouse gases.’

These findings
are fiercely disputed by other solar experts.

‘World temperatures
may end up a lot cooler than now for 50 years or more,’ said Henrik
Svensmark, director of the Center for Sun-Climate Research at Denmark’s
National Space Institute. ‘It will take a long battle to convince
some climate scientists that the sun is important. It may well be
that the sun is going to demonstrate this on its own, without the
need for their help.’

He pointed
out that, in claiming the effect of the solar minimum would be small,
the Met Office was relying on the same computer models that are
being undermined by the current pause in global-warming.

CO2 levels
have continued to rise without interruption and, in 2007, the Met
Office claimed that global warming was about to ‘come roaring back’.
It said that between 2004 and 2014 there would be an overall increase
of 0.3C. In 2009, it predicted that at least three of the years
2009 to 2014 would break the previous temperature record set in
1998.

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February
1, 2012

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